Gann Time Cycle

 

The Gann time cycle is a concept developed by W.D. Gann, a renowned trader and market analyst, to predict market movements based on time, price, and pattern. Gann believed that time was the most important factor in forecasting market trends, and his time cycles are based on the idea that history repeats itself in cycles, both in financial markets and nature.

Here’s a breakdown of key aspects of Gann time cycles:

1. Cycle Theory

Gann's theories are rooted in the belief that financial markets move in repetitive cycles, driven by natural laws such as astrology, geometry, and the relationship between time and price. He emphasized the importance of identifying these cycles to predict future market movements.

2. Key Cycles

Gann highlighted several specific time cycles in his work, including:

  • The 60-year cycle: This is one of the most important cycles, also known as the "Master Time Cycle." Gann believed that markets tend to repeat patterns approximately every 60 years.
  • The 30-year cycle: Another significant cycle that is half of the 60-year cycle.
  • The 20-year cycle: Markets often exhibit noticeable trends and reversals after 20 years.
  • The 10-year cycle: Gann noted that markets often go through boom and bust periods over 10-year intervals.
  • 365-day/yearly cycle: Gann observed that many major market turning points occurred on yearly cycles, often linked to specific calendar dates.

3. Astrological Influence

Gann incorporated astrological influences, believing that planetary movements impacted market behavior. For example, he studied planetary aspects, eclipses, and lunar cycles to predict market trends.

4. Squares of Nine and 360 Degrees

Gann's Square of Nine tool is one of his most famous methods, where he plotted numbers in a spiral pattern and related them to angles and degrees. He used a 360-degree circle to align price movements with time, believing that specific angles (like 90°, 180°, 360°) would correlate with key price levels and market turning points.

5. Gann Angles

Gann also developed the concept of Gann Angles (or Gann fans), which are diagonal lines plotted on a price chart that represent different ratios of time and price. These angles are often used in conjunction with his time cycles to identify potential support and resistance levels, as well as trend changes.

6. Market Turning Points

Gann's time cycles aim to forecast market turning points, such as tops, bottoms, and trend reversals. By aligning key dates and cycles with past market behavior, traders using Gann's methods attempt to predict when similar market conditions might recur.

7. Natural Time Cycles

Gann believed that natural cycles, such as seasons, solar cycles, and planetary cycles, had an influence on market behavior. These cycles were often tied to human psychology and historical events, leading to recurring patterns in price movements.

In practice, traders using Gann time cycles attempt to determine when a market will reach key highs or lows by analyzing historical data and identifying repeating time intervals. Although Gann’s methods are complex and often debated, they remain influential in technical analysis, particularly among traders who emphasize the importance of time in market analysis.

Would you like to explore any specific aspect of Gann's time cycles in more detail?

 

Interarch Building Products Ltd

Interarch Building Products Ltd

Interarch Building Products Ltd is an Indian company that specializes in manufacturing and supplying pre-engineered steel buildings (PEB), structures, and building systems. They offer a wide range of products and services primarily in the field of industrial, commercial, and infrastructure projects. Below are some of the key products offered by the company:

1. Pre-Engineered Buildings (PEB)

  • Interarch is a leading provider of pre-engineered steel building systems, including industrial warehouses, factories, logistics hubs, and commercial spaces. These buildings are custom-designed, factory-manufactured, and then assembled on-site.

2. Roofing and Cladding Systems

  • The company provides advanced metal roofing and wall cladding systems for industrial and commercial applications. These systems are known for durability, weather resistance, and energy efficiency.

3. Tracdek® Metal Roofing

  • Interarch’s proprietary Tracdek® range includes high-performance metal roofing sheets. They offer various profiles for different applications such as industrial sheds, warehouses, and commercial buildings.

4. Steel Structures

  • They manufacture heavy-duty structural steel for large-scale infrastructure projects, including high-rise buildings, airports, stadiums, and bridges.

5. Modular Buildings

  • Interarch provides modular buildings that can be prefabricated and assembled quickly for various uses, including office spaces, retail units, or temporary housing solutions.

6. Cold-Formed Steel Structures

  • The company also produces cold-formed steel structures for smaller or lightweight construction projects, such as low-rise buildings or residential complexes.

7. Turnkey Construction Solutions

  • In addition to building materials, Interarch offers end-to-end construction solutions, including design, engineering, project management, and on-site installation services.

Their products are widely used in sectors such as manufacturing, logistics, retail, healthcare, education, and infrastructure development.

 

Sales and profit growth in recent quarter

In the recent quarter (June 2024), Interarch Building Products Ltd reported a revenue of ₹303 crore, slightly up from ₹294 crore in the same quarter last year. The company recorded an operating profit of ₹27 crore with a stable operating margin of 9%, consistent with previous quarters. Net profit stood at ₹20 crore, reflecting a year-over-year growth from ₹19 crore. The earnings per share (EPS) also improved to ₹14.07.

Over the past year, Interarch has seen steady growth in both revenue and profit. The company's annual sales increased by about 15%, with net profit growing at a more modest rate of nearly 6%​

 

Growth trigger for the company as per latest transcript concalls

Interarch Building Products Ltd has identified several growth triggers for the upcoming years, as shared in their latest earnings call and strategic updates.

  1. Strong Order Book: The company secured new orders worth ₹634 crore for FY25, boosting its total order book to ₹1,350 crore. This demand is expected to be driven by private sector capital expenditure and large government infrastructure projects.

  2. Expansion in Government Projects: Interarch is focusing on specialized sectors like railways, which is experiencing significant investment in modernization and infrastructure expansion. By positioning itself in this sector, Interarch aims to leverage its expertise in pre-engineered building solutions to meet large-scale government project needs.

  3. Capacity Expansion: With five state-of-the-art manufacturing plants, including a newly commissioned one in Andhra Pradesh, Interarch plans to increase its production capacity. This expansion provides additional revenue visibility of ₹150 crore annually, which will contribute to its growth ambitions.

  4. Doubling Revenue Target: The company is aiming to double its revenue over the next 3-4 years. For FY25, it projects a revenue growth of 10-15%, and 15-20% growth in FY26, with stable EBITDA margins of around 9-10%.

These factors highlight Interarch's focus on capitalizing on private investments, government contracts, and expanded production capacity to sustain long-term growth

 

Recent manufacturing plant commissioned

Interarch Building Products Ltd recently commissioned a significant manufacturing plant in Athivaram, Andhra Pradesh. This new plant is part of the company's strategy to expand production capacity and meet the growing demand for pre-engineered buildings (PEB) in India. The Phase 1 commissioning of this facility added an annual revenue visibility of approximately ₹150 crore.

The Athivaram plant contributes to the company’s five fully integrated manufacturing plants, which also include facilities in Sriperumbudur (Tamil Nadu) and Pantnagar (Uttarakhand). The total installed capacity from these plants now stands at 161,000 metric tons per annum, which supports their goal of doubling revenue in the next few years

 

Current buzz around the company to trigger stock price advance

The recent buzz surrounding Interarch Building Products Ltd. primarily revolves around a few key developments that have caught investor attention and could trigger upward momentum in the stock price.

  1. New Orders and Revenue Visibility: Interarch has secured significant new orders worth ₹634 crore in FY25 so far, which includes major projects in pre-engineered buildings (PEB). This order book adds substantial revenue visibility for the near future​.

  2. Expansion and New Facilities: The company has commissioned a new manufacturing facility in Andhra Pradesh, which is expected to boost production capacity and support its goal of doubling revenues. Additionally, they have acquired land in Gujarat to set up another manufacturing unit​.

  3. Steady Financial Performance: Interarch reported a 4.54% rise in net profit during the June 2024 quarter, driven by consistent demand for its products and a strong operational performance​.

These factors, combined with the company’s strategic expansion and solid order book, are likely to drive future stock price advances.